Businesswoman and Nairobi gubernatorial aspirant has been left with egg on her face after a fake opinion poll she sponsored surfaced placing her as the most preferred candidate for the governorship.
The survey was allegedly conducted by the Centre for African Progress (CAP) between 26th and 29th March, 2022. The pollsters however left glaring scientific flows to discredit the purported poll that sought to examine the chances of candidates to clinch the top county seat in the August election.
For example, the poll had a well planned number of respondents for each candidate pointing to the fact that the survey was not random but a hoax aimed at duping Nairobi residents to believe that Kagure was in the lead.
Out of the total sample of 4000 registered electorates, city business magnate Agnes Kagure bagged 1520 votes representing 38 percent as former Starehe MP Bishop Margaret Wanjiru gannerd 1000 votes representing 25 percent. All other aspirants got a number of supporters that ended with zero indication that the pollsters mapped out their respondents.
The pollsters forgot to manufacture numbers depicting the randomness of an opinion poll. The Agnes Kagure self sponsored opinion poll, Kagure emerged top followed by Wanjiru.
Opinion polls are usually designed to represent the opinions of a population by conducting a series of questions and then extrapolating generalities in ratio or within confidence intervals. Polls based on samples of populations are subject to sampling error which reflects the effects of chance and uncertainty in the sampling process, however, Kagure’s poll had no margin of error.
Tim Wanyonyi had 11 percent with 440 votes, Richard Ngatia was at 7 percent garnering 280 while senator Johnson Sakaja had 6 percent with 240 votes.
To continue with the manipulated trend, Fwamba NC Fwamba was placed sixth with 200 representing 5 percent, Wachira Njuguna with 120 representing 3 percent of the poll and Governor Ann Kananu at 1% with 40 votes. 160 respondents were undecided while unlike in any other genuine poll, there was nobody who voted for other candidates or said that they didn’t know.
